Files
set50-system/backend/tests/test_themes.py
Kunthawat Greethong 8db3d48ae2 [verified] P0-B registry-driven scoring + P3 PIT backtest + P4 factor-weight learning
P0-B (registry is the single source of truth for scoring):
- FACTORS now carries center/span normalization spec; unused hand-written
  per-theme surprise blocks in dashboard.py replaced by one registry-driven
  compute_theme_surprises() (themes.py).
- THEMES['banks'] adds bank_npl weight so NPL is genuinely blended.
- factor_value/normalize hardened against NaN/inf (finite guards).
- Board re-ranks (TRUE/GULF up, TOP->3) per registry weights; 3 new tests
  incl. 'changing a registry weight changes output'.

P3 (point-in-time backtest):
- run_backtest is now a real multi-rebalance engine (reallocates every window,
  reconciles holdings, marks to market) instead of allocate-once+break.
- Added leakage_guard (False unless a PIT score_fn is supplied), planned vs
  actual rebalances, and momentum_at() true 12-1 (skips last month, PIT).

P4 (factor-weight learning):
- weight_learning.py: cross-sectional Spearman IC, forward-return builder,
  IC aggregation + t-stat, and apply_weight_update (new = clip(old*(1+shrink*IC))).
- GET /api/v1/learning/momentum endpoint. Live result: momentum IC=0.012
  t=0.132 over 22 periods -> momentum has no reliable predictive power here.
  Macro/demographic factors blocked (no historical factor vintages yet).

Two independent review gates passed (deleg_fe6f45cd, deleg_718218f8): empty
security/logic arrays; their non-blocking suggestions applied (finite guards,
dedupe leakage_guard resolution). 226 tests pass; Vite build passes.
2026-08-27 07:12:18 +07:00

185 lines
8.4 KiB
Python

"""Tests for the multi-theme registry + scoring."""
from __future__ import annotations
import unittest
from app import themes
class ThemesTest(unittest.TestCase):
def test_exposure_mapping_contains_expected(self) -> None:
self.assertIn("AOT", themes.THEME_SYMBOLS["tourism"])
self.assertIn("PTT", themes.THEME_SYMBOLS["refining_energy"])
self.assertIn("TISCO", themes.THEME_SYMBOLS["auto_credit"])
def test_frequency_recorded_per_theme(self) -> None:
self.assertEqual(themes.THEME_FREQUENCY["refining_energy"], "quarterly")
self.assertEqual(themes.THEME_FREQUENCY["tourism"], "monthly")
def test_siamchart_score_uses_growth_and_yield(self) -> None:
factors = {
"factors": [
{"symbol": "X", "eps_growth_yoy": 10.0, "dividend_yield": 2.0},
{"symbol": "Y", "eps_growth_yoy": -5.0, "dividend_yield": 0.0},
]
}
sc = themes.build_siamchart_score(factors)
# X = 10 + 2*2 = 14 ; Y = -5 -> X higher
self.assertGreater(sc["X"], sc["Y"])
def test_combine_60_40(self) -> None:
theme_scores = [{"A": 1.0, "B": -1.0}]
siamchart = {"A": 2.0, "B": 0.0}
merged = themes.combine_score(theme_scores, siamchart)
# A: 0.6*1.0 + 0.4*2.0 = 1.4 ; B: 0.6*(-1) + 0.4*0 = -0.6
self.assertAlmostEqual(merged["A"]["combined"], 1.4, places=5)
self.assertAlmostEqual(merged["B"]["combined"], -0.6, places=5)
self.assertAlmostEqual(merged["A"]["theme_score"], 1.0, places=5)
def test_multiple_themes_average(self) -> None:
# Symbol in two themes -> theme_score is the mean.
t1 = {"A": 1.0}
t2 = {"A": 3.0}
merged = themes.combine_score([t1, t2], {})
self.assertAlmostEqual(merged["A"]["theme_score"], 2.0, places=5)
def test_missing_sym_siamchart_gets_theme_only(self) -> None:
merged = themes.combine_score([{"A": 2.0}], {})
self.assertAlmostEqual(merged["A"]["combined"], 0.6 * 2.0, places=5)
if __name__ == "__main__":
unittest.main()
class SymbolBreakdownTest(unittest.TestCase):
def test_breakdown_shows_components(self):
factor_view = {
"factors": [
{"symbol": "AOT", "eps_growth_yoy": 10.0, "dividend_yield": 2.0,
"pe": 20.0, "eps": 5.0, "pbv": 2.0, "roe": 15.0, "is_dividend": True,
"company_name": "Airports"},
]
}
theme_surprises = {"tourism": 0.57, "auto_credit": 0.81, "refining_energy": 1.62}
from app import themes
d = themes.symbol_breakdown("AOT", factor_view=factor_view, theme_surprises=theme_surprises,
latest_price=67.0, price_date="2026-08-21")
self.assertEqual(d["symbol"], "AOT")
self.assertEqual(d["themes"], ["tourism"]) # AOT in tourism map
self.assertEqual(d["theme_contributions"][0]["surprise"], 0.57)
self.assertIn("siamchart_components", d)
self.assertEqual(d["weights"], {"theme": 0.6, "siamchart": 0.4})
self.assertIsInstance(d["combined_score"], float)
self.assertEqual(d["price"]["latest"], 67.0)
self.assertIn("fundamentals", d)
def test_breakdown_symbol_without_theme(self):
factor_view = {"factors": [{"symbol": "BANPU", "eps_growth_yoy": -2.0,
"dividend_yield": 0.0, "is_dividend": False,
"company_name": "BANPU"}]}
from app import themes
d = themes.symbol_breakdown("BANPU", factor_view=factor_view, theme_surprises={})
self.assertEqual(d["theme_score"], 0.0)
# BANPU is in energy/petrochem/utilities maps (full SET50 coverage)
self.assertTrue(set(d["themes"]) >= {"refining_energy", "petrochem_materials", "utilities"})
# no surprises set -> every contribution has surprise=None and theme_score 0
self.assertTrue(all(c["surprise"] is None for c in d["theme_contributions"]))
class QualitySelectionTest(unittest.TestCase):
def test_quality_differentiates_strong_vs_weak_in_theme(self):
from app import themes
fv = {"factors": [
{"symbol": "BBL", "roe": 12.0, "eps_growth_yoy": 8.0},
{"symbol": "KBANK", "roe": 10.0, "eps_growth_yoy": 5.0},
{"symbol": "KTB", "roe": 9.0, "eps_growth_yoy": 3.0},
{"symbol": "SCB", "roe": 8.0, "eps_growth_yoy": 2.0},
{"symbol": "TTB", "roe": 5.0, "eps_growth_yoy": -2.0},
]}
q_bbl = themes.quality_within_theme("BBL", "banks", fv)
q_ttb = themes.quality_within_theme("TTB", "banks", fv)
self.assertGreater(q_bbl, q_ttb) # strong bank outscores weak one
def test_breakdown_has_quality_and_theme_score_per_theme(self):
from app import themes
fv = {"factors": [
{"symbol": "BBL", "roe": 12.0, "eps_growth_yoy": 8.0},
{"symbol": "KTB", "roe": 9.0, "eps_growth_yoy": 3.0},
]}
d = themes.symbol_breakdown("BBL", factor_view=fv, theme_surprises={"banks": 1.0})
contrib = next(c for c in d["theme_contributions"] if c["theme"] == "banks")
self.assertIn("quality", contrib)
self.assertIn("theme_score", contrib)
self.assertAlmostEqual(contrib["theme_score"], contrib["surprise"] * contrib["quality"], places=3)
class RegistryDrivenSurpriseTest(unittest.TestCase):
"""P0-B: the declarative FACTORS/THEMES registry is now the single source
of truth for theme surprises — editing a weight genuinely changes output."""
@staticmethod
def _fetched(**macro):
# Build a minimal `fetched` dict (fetch-module -> collector dict).
return {
"macro_thai": {
"private_consumption_yoy": macro.get("cons", 4.9),
"private_investment_yoy": macro.get("invest", 18.1),
"headline_inflation_yoy": macro.get("infl", 1.95),
"manufacturing_yoy": macro.get("mfg", -3.1),
"tourists_ytd_mn": macro.get("tour", 16.2),
},
"auto_credit": {
"new_car_sales_yoy": 20.07, "vehicle_production": 117383.0,
"auto_exports": 81526.0,
},
"auto_npl": {"pct_of_npls": 3.95},
"energy_thai": {
"quarterly": {"Q1/2026": {"net_profit": 19481.0, "sales": 114809.0}},
},
}
def test_retail_driven_by_registry_weights(self):
from app import themes
s = themes.compute_theme_surprises(self._fetched())
# registry retail = consumption*1.0 + inflation*(-0.3):
# cons=4.9 -> (4.9-3)/10=0.19 ; infl=1.95, sign -1 -> -(1.95-2)/10=0.005*0.3? no:
# inflation normalized = -(1.95-2)/10 = +0.005, weight -0.3 -> -0.0015
# retail ≈ 0.19 - 0.0015 ≈ 0.189
self.assertIsNotNone(s["retail"])
self.assertAlmostEqual(s["retail"], 0.189, places=3)
def test_changing_factor_weight_changes_output(self):
"""The defining property of P0-B: the registry is not decorative."""
from unittest.mock import patch
from app import themes
base = themes.compute_theme_surprises(self._fetched())["retail"]
# Double consumption's weight in the retail theme -> surprise must rise.
original = themes.THEMES["retail"]["factors"]
try:
themes.THEMES["retail"]["factors"] = [
{"key": "macro_consumption", "weight": 2.0},
{"key": "macro_inflation", "weight": -0.3},
]
changed = themes.compute_theme_surprises(self._fetched())["retail"]
finally:
themes.THEMES["retail"]["factors"] = original
self.assertGreater(changed, base)
def test_tourism_override_wins(self):
from app import themes
s = themes.compute_theme_surprises(self._fetched(), tourism_surprise=0.123)
self.assertEqual(s["tourism"], 0.123)
# Without override, tourism falls back to registry factors (not None).
s2 = themes.compute_theme_surprises(self._fetched())
self.assertIsNotNone(s2["tourism"])
def test_normalize_rejects_non_finite(self):
from app import factors
self.assertIsNone(factors.normalize(float("nan")))
self.assertIsNone(factors.normalize(float("inf")))
self.assertIsNone(factors.normalize(None))
# finite value still normalizes
self.assertEqual(factors.normalize(15.0, sign=1, center=5.0, span=10.0), 1.0)