set50-system/docs/HANDOFF.md

# Handoff — Tourism Vertical Slice

## Project

- Path: `/Users/kunthawat/Gitea/set50-alternative-data-platform`
- Branch: `main`
- Verified code commit: pending; final M2.9 independent remediation review passed; no commit or push performed
- Current milestone: M2.9 forward price observations and explicit research modes complete/blocked; observation-integrity follow-up implemented; exploratory research is usable, validated backtest remains blocked
- Mode: research + paper only
- Frontend: Vue 3 + Vite
- Backend: Flask `0.5.0`
- Current runtime source: BOT Tourism Indicators (`TOURISM_SOURCE=bot`)

## Completed

- Tourism snapshot schema with source, publication, retrieval, vintage and raw hash fields.
- Deterministic Tourism Pulse score: standardized surprise × exposure × confidence.
- BOT ASP.NET form adapter with monthly history parsing and trailing 12-point YoY baseline.
- Atomic raw HTML and normalized snapshot persistence under ignored `backend/data/`.
- Read-only `/api/v1/data-health` endpoint.
- Safe `/api/v1/replay/tourism?vintage_id=...` endpoint with identity and path validation.
- Immutable `VintageStore` manifest with first-seen, last-seen, seen-count and revision metadata.
- One-shot collector: `backend/scripts/collect_tourism_vintage.py`.
- Point-in-time vintage query: `GET /api/v1/vintages?as_of=<ISO-8601>`.
- Deterministic event-study engine with window, benchmark and cost calculations.
- Backtest readiness gate: `GET /api/v1/backtest/tourism?min_events=12`.
- Yahoo-backed daily price snapshot with SET symbol mapping and adjusted-close bars.
- Price health: `GET /api/v1/prices/health`.
- Forward price observation archive: `GET /api/v1/prices/observations`; repeated payloads reuse immutable snapshots while recording retrieval observations, first/last-seen times, prior hashes, revision status and structured diffs.
- Frozen research runner: `POST /api/v1/research/tourism/run` and `GET /api/v1/research/tourism/latest`.
- Research runner modes: explicit `validated` (PIT fail-closed) and `exploratory` (revised-history descriptive only); the UI calls exploratory mode explicitly and shows `result_scope`.
- Headless runner: `backend/scripts/run_tourism_research.py`.
- Durable atomic paper ledger under `backend/data/paper/ledger.json` when configured.
- Raw and normalized snapshot integrity binding with explicit `sha256-json-canonical-v1` metadata.
- Replay now loads through the canonical `VintageStore.load_snapshot()` path and fails closed on tampered snapshots.
- Research reports carry canonical content hashes; manifest entries carry their own hashes binding report filename, report hash, and metadata.
- Research reports from pre-hash trusted stores can be migrated explicitly with `backend/scripts/migrate_research_report_hashes.py`; automatic legacy reads remain disabled.
- Research input lineage records normalized snapshot hashes and hash algorithms alongside raw payload hashes.
- PIT daily price contract `pit-daily-v1` is implemented: explicit provider release/evidence metadata, per-series IANA timezone, per-bar session date/known-at/OHLC/adjusted-close/volume, and immutable manifest/hash binding are required before `point_in_time=true` is accepted.
- PIT event-study mode rejects missing or market-locally future-known prices; the research runner enables this check for PIT snapshots.
- Public price-provider feasibility is documented in `docs/engineering-log/2026-08-24-price-provider-feasibility.md`; SET Historical Data, SETSMART, SMART Marketplace, ICE SET, LSEG Tick History/S3 Direct, Databento, and Exchange Data International (EDI) have all been checked, but no candidate has yet supplied enough evidence to pass `pit-daily-v1`, so no new adapter was added. EDI is the closest conditional price-feed lead because its public docs expose SET coverage, a confirmed ETA, and correction/re-push behavior, but its public contract still lacks immutable release metadata.
- VintageStore rejects non-object snapshots, invalid UTF-8 manifests/snapshots, and raw-payload read failures with `VintageStoreError`.
- Tourism replay computation rejects non-list/non-object observation/exposure shapes as controlled semantic failures, so malformed exposure snapshots fail closed instead of leaking `AttributeError`.
- Manifest JSON shape and every `list_runs()`/`latest()` entry are validated before metadata is returned or used for selection.
- Ranked target weights and LONG/SHORT/NEUTRAL classification.
- English dashboard with live/provisional source label, sign-aware surprise copy and lineage fields.
- Explicit loopback-only paper demo mode with a visible warning, protected token mode for shared/network use, and internal paper ledger.
- No external webhook or MT5 integration.

Independent M1 review passed with no concrete security or logic blockers. Non-blocking backlog: add schema-drift, duplicate/reordered-row, and malformed-vintage regression fixtures.

## Current live vintage

```text
source_id: bot.ec_ei_028_s2
published_at: 2026-07-31T14:30:00+07:00
as_of: 2026-06-30
status: provisional
available_periods: 138
history_points: 12
vintage_id: bot.ec_ei_028_s2-2026-07-31-665981f88b4a
seen_count: 16
raw_payload_hash: 665981f88b4a30c5bd30026cf1e96279c244ad83725558f4136d952b29756a31
theme_surprise: -0.35114754
```

## Verified commands and live checks

```text
PYTHONPATH=backend .venv/bin/python -W error -m unittest discover -s backend/tests -v
Ran 125 tests ... OK

PYTHONPATH=backend .venv/bin/python -m compileall -q backend/app backend/scripts backend/tests
passed

npm run build
Vite build completed successfully.

npm audit --omit=dev --audit-level=high
found 0 vulnerabilities

git diff --check
passed

python3 ~/.hermes/skills/research/grounded-citations/scripts/sources.py verify docs/engineering-log/2026-08-24-price-provider-feasibility.md --strict --evidence
citations OK; 11 cited sources, all with evidence quotes

GET /api/v1/health
HTTP 200; {"mode":"research","status":"ok","version":"0.5.0"}

GET /api/v1/data-health
HTTP 200; source_mode=bot, status=provisional, replayable=true

GET /api/v1/replay/tourism?vintage_id=bot.ec_ei_028_s2-2026-07-31-665981f88b4a
HTTP 200; replay theme surprise matched live summary exactly.

GET /api/v1/vintages?as_of=2026-07-01T00:00:00Z
HTTP 200; count=0

GET /api/v1/vintages?as_of=2026-08-01T00:00:00Z
HTTP 200; count=1; manifest seen_count=16

GET /api/v1/backtest/tourism?min_events=12
HTTP 409; status=blocked, available_events=1, required_events=12, price_series_required=true

GET /api/v1/prices/health
HTTP 200; available=true, quality=revised_vendor_history, point_in_time=false, symbols=9

POST /api/v1/research/tourism/run (validated default)
HTTP 200; report status=blocked, reason=insufficient_vintages, immutable run_id persisted

POST /api/v1/research/tourism/run (mode=exploratory, min_events=1)
HTTP 200; revised-price report runs only as result_scope=non_pit_descriptive_only

GET /api/v1/research/tourism/latest
HTTP 200; same run_id returned on replay, report_hash present

GET /api/v1/prices/observations
HTTP 200 on empty archive; populated archives return bound observation IDs, prior hashes and revision diffs

BOT collector rerun
same published release; seen_count=16; independent releases remain=1

M2.9 remediation status
125 tests and current-data health smoke test pass; observation-integrity follow-up covers same-raw/normalized mismatch, malformed manifest entries, first-capture temporal ordering, and duplicate equal-time observations; focused independent review `deleg_0e2282c8` returned schema-valid `passed=true` with empty security/logic blocker arrays; no commit or push performed
```

Paper writes support two explicit policies: local `PAPER_AUTH_MODE=demo` requires a loopback bind and allows paper-only writes without a session token while showing a warning; protected `PAPER_AUTH_MODE=token` uses a server-side token exchange and HttpOnly `paper_session` cookie. The token is not embedded in the frontend bundle.

## Known limitations

- BOT data is provisional and may be revised. The vintage/hash contract preserves the fetched version, but this is not a final-data guarantee.
- Only foreign-arrival YoY is live in this slice; occupancy and airport passenger metrics are not yet connected.
- Snapshot storage is local filesystem and single-process; shared persistence is required before multi-worker deployment.
- No investment edge, transaction-cost result, or backtest conclusion has been established.
- One independent source release is not enough for a valid event study; current historical rows are not treated as point-in-time vintages.
- The event-study engine is deterministic and tested. Its PIT mode now enforces per-bar known-at semantics in the market timezone. Yahoo price history is connected for plumbing, but it is revised vendor history, not point-in-time data.
- The PIT contract is implemented but provider release-time evidence is still absent. No configuration-only promotion of revised history is allowed; `point_in_time` remains false.
- SET Historical Data, SETSMART, and SMART Marketplace document historical/API availability but do not publicly document the release-vintage and known-at semantics required by the PIT contract. ICE SET is a strong commercial candidate; LSEG S3 Direct has the strongest public PIT claim but remains conditional on SET coverage and vintage evidence. Databento lists the SET venue and documents PIT corporate-action history, but its public price-data material does not establish price release IDs, client availability/`known_at`, or correction-vintage replay. EDI documents confirmed/unconfirmed republish and `Repush1/2/3` correction files for SET-covered EOD pricing and publishes a confirmed Thailand ETA, but also states that it has no EOD time-series database; immutable release IDs, actual release timestamps, retention, and retrievable manifests remain unproven. All candidates require a provider evidence packet before implementation.
- Validated research runner is operational and replayable, but correctly emits a blocked report until both evidence gates pass. Exploratory runner is operational against revised history only with an explicit descriptive-only scope.
- Snapshot loads fail closed when raw files, normalized payloads or manifest metadata do not match their recorded hashes.
- Research report and manifest-entry loads fail closed when persisted content or bound metadata is tampered; pre-existing research volumes require integrity metadata migration before they can be loaded.
- Independent integrity review gate passed for the staged remediation scope under the local threat model: `deleg_c227c439` found a persist-wide manifest-validation gap in the prior staged tree; it is now fixed and covered by a regression test. The original `deleg_43348a3b` result was semantically positive but schema-invalid because it used `findings`; schema correction `deleg_a1c721d2` returned the exact required four-key verdict with `passed=true` and all arrays empty. Earlier timeouts/stale reviews (`deleg_cf1da27d`, `deleg_feb40653`, `deleg_87a0f686`) and interrupted parallel review `deleg_e2d54c30` are non-approving and contribute no additional evidence.
- The hash boundary protects local artifacts against corruption/partial writes; hostile host-level rewrite of code, manifests and runtime environment is outside this local threat model.
- Revisions are deduplicated by canonical `(source_id, published_at)`; the latest observed revision is selected once.
- Event-study default execution is the next trading session, including weekend/holiday event dates.
- Browser screenshot verification remains blocked by the Chrome remote-debugging permission prompt; served HTML/source, live API, fresh Vite build and replay integrity were verified instead.
- Paper demo startup rejects non-loopback `PAPER_BIND_HOST`; token mode remains the required policy for shared/network deployment.
- Fresh bounded independent review of the paper-auth scope passed with `security_concerns=[]` and `logic_errors=[]`; its remaining items are non-blocking test suggestions. Integrity remediation is tracked separately and passed via the schema-corrected exact verdict.
- M2.9 remediation now covers malformed provider/config totalization, non-PIT series/raw lineage, PIT numeric overflow handling, UTC/equal-time predecessor ordering, same-raw/normalized mismatch rejection, malformed snapshot manifest rejection, first-capture observation timing, contract-backed observation count/timing/reference checks, descriptive-only exploratory status, and human-readable UI reason labels. Focused independent review `deleg_0e2282c8` returned schema-valid `passed=true` with empty security and logic blocker arrays; its only suggestion is to retain regression coverage. Process-level locking and focused helper/UI coverage remain deferred. No commit or push has been made.

## Exact next action

Keep collecting independent BOT releases until 12 genuinely distinct `(source_id, published_at)` releases exist. In parallel request one complete market-data provider evidence packet (EDI first, or ICE/LSEG/SET fallback): raw sample, provider release ID/time, explicit known-at semantics, correction/revision replay example, SET symbol coverage, timezone/session rules, and immutable archive/manifest evidence. Databento is currently a reference/corporate-actions lead only and must not be used to claim PIT price bars. Revised Yahoo history remains `point_in_time=false`. Do not raise the PIT flag or promote a PIT adapter until that packet passes `pit-daily-v1`. The operator can run exploratory research now, but only validated mode may support a historical backtest claim. Keep local paper work in explicit demo mode and use token mode before any shared/network deployment. Add a trusted deployment signing key before treating the app as a multi-user or hostile-host service.

NEVER include API keys, tokens, passwords, secrets, credentials, or connection strings in the summary — replace any that appear with [REDACTED].

---

## Session 2026-08-27 — Backtest Accounting Remediation

**Branch:** `main` · **Base HEAD:** `b362cc3` · **Commit/push:** not performed

### Completed

- Added RED/GREEN flat-price accounting invariants in `backend/tests/test_backtest.py`.
- Corrected general backtest price P&L to compare ending pre-dividend equity with initial capital.
- Included the final-holdings dividend-yield proxy in `final_value` and `net_return`.
- Added machine-readable `dividend_method=final_holdings_yield_proxy`.
- Updated the Vue backtest panel to label estimated dividends and warn when `leakage_guard=false`.

### Verified

- RED: flat-price regressions failed with incorrect `price_pnl=20,000` and `49,000`.
- GREEN: flat/no-dividend, flat/proxy-dividend, rising/no-dividend, and multi-rebalance accounting checks passed; targeted suite **11 passed**.
- Full backend suite: **239 passed**.
- Python compileall passed.
- Vite production build passed.
- npm audit reported 0 high-severity vulnerabilities.
- Added-line security/dangerous-pattern scan and `git diff --check` passed.
- Independent review cycle 1 failed closed on missing proxy/non-PIT disclosure in saved-run history. A fresh fix agent added `ประมาณการปันผล (Proxy)` and per-row `descriptive non-PIT` badges. Fresh final review `deleg_10918fed` inspected the current post-hardening diff and returned `passed=true` with empty security, logic, and suggestion arrays.

### Known limitations

- `dividend_income` is still estimated from final holdings and final dividend yield; it is not a dated cash-flow ledger.
- The default public backtest still applies current scores historically, so `leakage_guard=false` and the result remains descriptive non-PIT.
- A supplied scorer toggles `leakage_guard=true`, but provenance and release-time semantics are not independently certified.
- Backtest run history remains in process memory.

### Exact next action

Implement dated dividend events and a provenance-validated PIT score provider before using results as strategy-performance evidence. Do not reset or stage unrelated pre-existing working-tree changes.

---

## Session 2026-08-27 — PIT factor store + partial PIT score provider (verified + pushed)

**Branch:** main · **HEAD:** 1f630be (pushed `1b971ac..1f630be`)

### Completed this session (verified + pushed)
- **PIT factor store** `backend/app/factor_vintages.py`: append-only, provenance-complete store with `observed_at` / `released_at` / `retrieved_at` and a SHA-256 canonical **hash chain** (tamper/reorder detectable). `value_at(as_of)` returns only rows whose `released_at <= as_of` — a real testable **anti-look-ahead** guarantee; no value released by `as_of` **fails closed** (None / `have_pit_value=False`). Provenance invariants enforced: `released >= observed`, `retrieved >= released`, non-finite / naive-timestamp rejected.
- **Partial PIT score provider** `backend/app/pit_scorer.py`: `PitScoreProvider.score_board(as_of)` rebuilds the per-symbol board from PIT factor values (theme 60% dimension) plus a **partial** siamchart view (EPS growth from the 5-year series; current ratios flagged `partial_pit`). `make_pit_score_fn` adapts it to the engine's `ScoreFn`; date-only `as_of` normalized to midnight +07:00.
- **Honest leakage gating** `backend/app/backtest.py`: `_resolve_scores` now sets `leakage_guard=True` **only** when the supplied score_fn's per-symbol meta asserts `pit_meta.pit=True`. An arbitrary callable with no PIT proof is no longer treated as PIT — closes the "supplied fn ⇒ PIT" hole.
- **API** `backend/app/__init__.py`: `POST /api/v1/backtest` accepts `use_pit`, wiring the PIT provider; `_load_siamchart_snapshot` loads the SET50 fundamental snapshot. Empty factor store **fail-closes** (live probe: `leakage_guard=false`).

### Verified
- Backend full suite **255 passed** (was 239); new tests 14 (factor store 9 + pit scorer 5) + 2 backtest leakage-gating + 1 corrected.
- compileall, `git diff --check`, static secret/dangerous scan all clean.
- Live route probe: `use_pit` with empty store → HTTP 200, `leakage_guard=false`, real 2-rebalance run.

### Honest scope / known limitations
- Theme dimension is PIT **from this store forward**; **no factor history exists before 2026-08-27**, so any pre-today backtest remains non-PIT by construction.
- Siamchart fundamental is **partial**: EPS 5-year growth is PIT-grade, but ratios (Yield %, PE, P/BV, ROE, DPS) are current-snapshot only and the snapshot has no dated vintage chain yet. Results are flagged `partial_pit`, never fully-PIT.
- `dividend_income` still uses the final-holdings yield proxy (not a dated dividend ledger); that is the next milestone.

### Exact next action
Implement the dated **dividend cash-flow ledger** (ex-date / record date / per-share / qty held) replacing the final-holdings proxy. After that (or in parallel), add a **siamchart vintage chain** so the fundamental dimension stops being partial. Do not reset or stage unrelated pre-existing working-tree changes.

---

## Session 2026-08-25 — Multi-theme + Simulation (appended)

**Branch:** main · **HEAD:** aae1d13 (pushed `8a6991b..aae1d13`)

### Completed this session (verified + pushed)
- 3 Thai alternative-factor themes: tourism (BOT), auto_credit (TradingEconomics Thai car sales), refining_energy (Thai Oil TOP quarterly) — all real Thai data, daily cache.
- Theme registry + scoring 60/40 (theme / Siamchart fundamental); `GET /api/v1/themes` returns combined board + per-theme frequency (monthly/quarterly).
- Capital-allocation simulation: `POST /api/v1/simulation` — 50/20/30 buckets, min 100 shares, bucket3 = highest dividend yield ignoring score (fix `aae1d13`), cash fallback, paper/backtest non-PIT label.
- MT5 bridge interface (`app/mt5_bridge.py`): dry-run default; live dispatch needs `MT5_SEND_ORDERS=1` AND approval (Windows-only MetaTrader5).
- Thai frontend: theme panel, stock board (Siamchart fundamentals + signal, dividend filter, sortable), simulation tab (capital input → 3 buckets), removed legacy Paper ledger section.
- Dashboards fully localized to Thai (technical terms kept EN per user).

### Verified
- Backend suite **185 tests OK**; compileall ok; static secret scan clean; `git diff --check` clean.
- Independent reviews: `deleg_1682c760` (blocker: bucket3 ranked by score) → fixed → `deleg_43b165e0` passed=true.
- Live: `/api/v1/themes` 200; `/api/v1/simulation` 200 (1M → b1 AOT/MINT/AWC, b3 CRC).

### Blockers / pending
- Price universe = **8 symbols** (AOT,AWC,BEM,CPALL,CPN,CRC,MINT,PTT,SET50) from Yahoo snapshot; simulation can only allocate within these. **Next action: extend price collector to full SET50.**
- `bot_regional` only north enabled (NE=955 is 0.0 BE-2570 placeholder); other regions pending.
- M2.9 legacy files (prices.py, research.py, event_study.py, vintages.py, etc.) still **uncommitted/dirty** — unrelated, untouched this session.

### Exact next action
Extend price-history collection to full SET50 universe so simulation allocates across all names (currently 8). Follow `engineering-handoff` at session end.